Weekend Newsletter 5/16

Learn how to win in any market 📈📉

Welcome to another week! I’ve noticed traders have missed some of the big moves. To help with this, I’m narrowing the focus by sharing less setups here (8). If you are looking for more setups, check my recent substack thread. I will also share other setups on X.

Below, you’ll find 3 Bearish 🐻 Charts and 5 Bullish ones. We get to the point in the market where we need to acknowledge some of the best risk/reward setups out there favor a pullback. I’m not calling for a crash. But, it’s important to know how to win off downside moves. This allows me to profit in any market.

Let’s get to it, but first give this a ❤️ and/or a restack ♻️. I’ve only been on Substack for 5 months and many have not hear of me yet.

To set the stage, let’s look at the 1 bearish chart I shared last week. You can see the Long Upper Shadows coming out of the Rising Wedge. There are multiple points of rejection pointing to a high conviction swing for me. The 5/29 Puts are up > 20%.

Weekly Chart

There were plenty of charts that worked on the Long Side as well 📈

Mentioned in the WKND and Monday Newsletters

EOSE hit the 200 EMA 🧲 we’ve been targeting for weeks (> 70% move)

Trading Commons can allow to hold and be patient.

FRMI went > 50% and hit its 2nd Target 🎯 (Note: this and EOSE moved off Earnings. I do limit position size on Earnings plays)

FSLR, DXYZ, WYFI, and others provided solid opportunities this week.

I also want to highlight the advantages of watching correlation. Let’s use BABA 0.00%↑ as an example. It set up well with solid volume. However, it never came close to confirming. For me, that is no position, no harm, no foul. Not every setup will work unfortunately. All we can do is be aware of Key Support and Resistance Levels. Then, we follow what the chart is telling us. See TSLA 0.00%↑ LYFT 0.00%↑ and others for examples.

🗒️ None of my charts are a plan to jump in blindly. They are all binary conditionals; trigger + confirmation + 🎯= 🏆

• White lines are Support/Resistance I’m watching (I set my alert 🚨 there)

• Red lines are 🎯s where I scale out(then I set my 🛑s to guarantee a winning trade)

⚠️ Earnings for the Week Ahead ⚠

️MULTIPLE Reversal Candle Courses for Paid Subscribers.

• Candlestick Basics

• Long Shadow Reversals

• Engulfing Reversals (I will feature the Bearish Engulfing candle below 👇)

• Spinning Top Reversals

  • I purposely made each video succinct and visual. I also provided multiple examples where a thesis was INVALIDATED. Validation/confirmation is key 🔑

6 Different Kinds of Candles are explained in this course.

What is an A+ setup to me? (Explained here)

• I share charts; not financial advice. What you do with this info is up to you.

My Top 8 In No Particular Order 👇

🎬 IWM; Russell 2000 Small Cap ETF 🐻

Thesis: Multiple Bearish Signs: RSI Bearish Divergence + Rising Wedge + Engulfing 🕯️

🔁 Note: I will use this emoji to indicate if I am still swinging 🔁

🎬 I will use the “begin” emoji to show if I’m looking to start a new position

Headwinds facing Small Caps

• Russell 2000 companies carry a much higher share of floating‑rate debt than large caps, with estimates around 40% of Russell 2000 debt tied to floating rates

  • “Higher for longer” hits them harder than large caps

Inflation, Energy, Recession Fears …

• Rising oil and energy prices are explicitly pressuring IWM; recent commentary cites a renewed pullback in IWM as crude spiked more than 12% and inflation fears re‑accelerated, squeezing transportation, manufacturing, and basic materials names inside the small‑cap universe.

Note 📝: None of these things need to happen for a pullback to occur. We just hit All Time Highs. Pullbacks can happen just because a chart is ready.

🎬 My personal plan: I will Swing IWM Puts IF it loses 277 Support (270; 6/18)

Subscribe to see my Top 10. The Discord Link is at the bottom of the Newsletter. I provide Newsletters on Weekends, Mondays, Wednesdays (that’s 3 Newsletters each week w/ 10 charts). Included in the subscription are all my Candlestick Courses, Thread Updates, and a link to my Volume Journal.